Trudeau, May both in Waterloo region Monday – CBC.ca

Trudeau, May both in Waterloo region Monday - CBC.ca
Who lost the last election again?
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is in Waterloo Monday morning to make a policy announcement at Sandowne Public School.

Trudeau's stop will be brief as he's leaving to go to London for a stop in the early afternoon.

The NDP took a big-picture approach to its campaign Sunday, with Singh launching a platform specific to the province of Quebec. Among other things, he pledged more money for immigration, an expansion of language laws and the right to withdraw from more federal programs with financial compensation, so Quebec could establish its own parallel programs.

Federal election 2019 roundup: Scheer proposes childrens tax credit, while Trudeau promises daycare funding

She's expected at House of Friendship in downtown Kitchener before she visits the campaign office of Kitchener Centre candidate Mike Morrice.

That plan was mostly released last year. It will form part of the Conservatives’ broader election platform. Among other things, it promises that known gang members won’t be allowed to post bail if arrested (a measure certain to be challenged on constitutional grounds) and bring in longer sentences for gang-related offences.

Morrice is facing Liberal candidate and incumbent Raj Saini, Conservative Stephen Woodworth, the NDP's Andrew Moraga, People's Party of Canada candidate Patrick Bernier and Ellen Papenburg, the candidate for the Animal Protection Party of Canada.

Former Toronto police chief Bill Blair, who was named crime-reduction minister in his first term as a Liberal MP, suggested back in June that ideas on the table included new standards for secure storage of firearms, preventing people from buying them on behalf of criminals and deterring the smuggling of weapons from the United States.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer visited Waterloo region just before the election was called and sat down with CBC Kitchener-Waterloo's The Morning Edition host Craig Norris.

His attendance at the rally – and call to Crombie – speaks to the two hats he wears these weeks. Despite the fact Parliament has been dissolved, Trudeau remains prime minister. He spent most of the day campaigning in southern Ontario, and was to wrap up the day with a rally in Markham, a suburb northeast of Toronto.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier have not been to the region since the election campaign got underway last week.

“What we do know about some of these shootings that have gone on over the past few months is that they are related to gang activity and that’s why we need better laws to deal with things like bail conditions that known gang members receive,” Scheer told reporters after a campaign announcement in Surrey, B.C.

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The parliamentary budget office estimates the cut will cost the treasury $6 billion a year if fully implemented, though Scheer said forgoing that revenue would still allow him to balance the federal budget in five years. The cut would be worth $850 a year to a household headed by a couple making average salaries, Scheer said.

Trudeau shakes hands following his victory speech at Liberal party headquarters in Montreal on Oct. 19, 2015 (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang)

No, thats not a prediction for the campaign now underway. Im pretty sure there will be losers this time. But the last one, the election of 2015, looks increasingly unusual in this particular sense the further it recedes in the rear-view mirror.

OTTAWA – What police were calling an “ambush-style” shooting in the Toronto area that left one teenager dead and five other people injured saw federal party leaders swiftly move to offer condolences Sunday but little in the way of new ideas to address gun violence in Canada’s cities.

Its odd because the results look acceptable, or more than acceptable, for all three major parties. Thats not normal in Canada. Were used to unequivocal election-night slaughters, like what befell the Liberals in 2011, or the NDP in the fallow stretch before rebuilding began under Jack Layton, or—shudder—the fate of the Conservatives in 1993.

Also on Sunday, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May was making her way to Toronto, where she’ll be unveiling her party’s platform on Monday. People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier was in Quebec, and will travel to New Brunswick Monday for a rally there.

But 2015 was an entirely different story. Start with the obvious: the Liberal result was an unlooked-for triumph. Up until the last few days before the voting, a majority looked beyond reach, and a minority win would have sounded just fine to most Liberals. Then Justin Trudeau surged. The Conservatives? Sure, Stephen Harper lost, but the Tory vote total dipped only a bit to 5,600,496, from 2011s 5,835270, and the Conservatives returned a more than presentable 99 MPs to form the Official Opposition.

Which brings us to the NDP. They started out the campaign running first in the polls. Fully a month in, Tom Mulcair still looked solidly positioned to win—some pollsters even supposed he still had momentum. Then the niqab issue hit Mulcair hard in Quebec, while progressive voters preferred Trudeaus promise to run deficits to the NDP platforms pledge to balance the books. And the traditional third-place partys inexorable slide back into third began.

But Scheer focused his announcement there Sunday on a promise to cut the amount of tax Canadians pay on the first $47,630 of taxable income they earn, what’s known as the lowest tax bracket. The cut would be phased in starting in 2021 and fully take effect in 2023.

Of course, New Democrats took it hard. But only because their benchmark was Laytons extraordinary 2011 breakthrough, when they won 31 per cent of the vote and 103 seats. By comparison, Mulcair managed 20 per cent of the popular vote and 44 seats. Look back before 2011, however, and the comparisons tell a different story. In elections from 1962-2008, the average NDP popular vote was 16 per cent, for an average seat total of 24. Taking that longer view, the 2015 outcome looks solid, and the subsequent decision to dump Mulcair dubious.

Crombie, a former Liberal MP, suggested Sunday that all levels of government must increase the resources and funding they direct at the problem of gun violence. Trudeau said what his party is preparing to offer is something he’ll discuss in the coming weeks.

If this were just an exercise in sifting numbers, it wouldnt be all that interesting. What makes the loserless 2015 outcome intriguing is the less quantifiable leadership dynamic behind it.

It starts with the incumbent PM. Harper was an imposing disciplinarian. He had willed the right to unite in 2003. Nobody seriously doubted his grip on the Conservative base. His partys fundraising prowess had long since been harnessed to ruthless message control and rigorous niche marketing of policy, based on data-driven demographic analysis of voters

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh went little farther. Both said the root causes of the violence need to be addressed, but differed in their views on what those are as they repeated their existing commitments.

Mulcair was formidable. A veteran of Quebec City politics, which is a tough proving ground. Lauded for the efficiency of his stripped-down questions in the House, unleashed with a signature interrogative glare. And he inherited an NDP that had been thoroughly professionalized under his predecessor, making it far less a vehicle for union leaders and volunteers and far more a modern political machine.

Surrey is no stranger itself to gun and gang violence. Outrage over the issue saw a new mayor elected last year on a promise to end the city’s policing contract with the RCMP and establish a new force answering to a local police board.

It wouldnt be right to say Trudeau was the least well-known of the three. After all, Canadians old enough to have been around had known him, in the way of celebrity offspring, since his infancy. Yet he struck many as a fresh force. Unlike some other rookie leaders, he arrived in the federal big leagues with a close coterie of advisors who had gained Triple-A experience in Ontario. The combination of his newness and their experience proved potent.

“And we want to make sure we have all the programs in place – affordable housing, good health care, opportunities for work so that young people can find a positive way forward and not end up in a vicious cycle of violence.”

So its not just that 2015 didnt produce a clear loser; its that the result seems fitting, given the stature of the leaders and the state of their parties. Its a different story this fall.

Trudeau presides over a strong economy and can point to achievements like the Canada Child Benefit, but the SNC-Lavalin affair dogs him and broken promises, like his failure to enact electoral reform, have dulled his sheen. Scheer lacks Harpers party-builder gravitas and is running on a make-life-affordable theme that falls short of stirring. Singh starts out far behind in the polls, supported by a diminished NDP operation, playing desperate catch-up.

Inflating past campaigns is a notorious pastime of politicos and reporters hanging around bars. An old-timer recalls the 88 debates; an even older-timer gazes into the middle distance and invokes 68. Im not pitching for 15 to cast in that sort of nostalgic glow. Still, if the options on offer in Canadian elections are often decried as unimpressive, including this time, its worth noting when they’ve notched notably higher—especially when the outcome essentially confirmed it.