Canadian election drew nearly 66% of registered voters – CBC.ca

Canadian election drew nearly 66% of registered voters - CBC.ca
Google predicted the 2015 election. Heres what it says about election 2019.
Turnout for Canada's 2019 general election was 65.95 per cent of eligible voters, not as high as in 2015 when Justin Trudeau first swept to power, but a strong turnout compared to some past elections.

Of the 27.1 million Canadians registered to vote in Monday's election, 17.9 million cast ballots, according to Elections Canada. That number does not include electors who registered on election day.

He said the NDP wants “young people to be filled with hope” and for Canada to be “a global leader in the fight against the climate crisis.” In addition, he said he will fight to ensure that Canadian families “have a more affordable life” and that Canada becomes “a nation that take reconciliation seriously.”

There were 55,515 Canadian expatriates registered to vote, and a final tally shows 31,798 — a record number — marked ballots.

Liberal candidate Patricia Lattanzio just arrived to cheers at her campaign office in Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel. Lattanzio switches easily from French to English to Italian as she instructs her team to still get the vote out with less than an hour before polls close. #elxn43 pic.twitter.com/Ox8m62eSEa

The Liberals reversed a provision put in place by the Harper administration that stripped expats who had been out of the country five years or more of the right to vote.

 Les Québécois et les Canadiens se donnent un parlement minoritaire. […] Le Bloc Québecois peut collaborer avec nimporte quel gouvernement. Si cest bon pour le Québec, le Bloc va travailler avec vous. Le coeur est à la fête au National à Montréal! pic.twitter.com/dgK4vwCSxh

Robocalls tell voters to head to the polls a day late

A strong turnout is a sign of engagement with the election and its issues, which is why all the party leaders on Monday posted Twitter messages urging their supporters to vote.

Conservative Lois Brown, who was the ridings MP from 2008-2015, is looking to take it back. She will also battle the NDPs Yvonne Kelly, Green Party candidate Walter Bauer, PC Partys Dorian Baxter, Laurie Goble with the Parti Rhinocéros Party, and the People Partys Andrew McCaughtrie.

In the 2015 election, in which Trudeau gained a majority, 68.5 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots — a turnaround from earlier elections in which voter engagement had soured and voting numbers fell.

Terry Dowdall is representing for the Conservatives. He is up against five rivals: Liberal Lorne Kenny, NDPs Ilona Matthews, Green Partys Sherri Jackson, Peoples Party candidate Richard Sommer, and Tony DAngelo representing the Veterans Coalition Party of Canada.

Video: Canadians head to the polls for the countrys general election | AFP

It is a priority for CBC to create a website that is accessible to all Canadians including people with visual, hearing, motor and cognitive challenges.

Nuttall is not running for re-election, leaving Conservative Doug Shipley, Liberal Brian Kalliecharan, NDPs Dan Janssen, Green Party candidate Marty Lancaster, and Peoples Party candidate David Patterson to battle it out.

Daily Poll: Does last-minute campaigning affect how you vote?

If Google searches in Canada for the federal leaders are any indication of how Canadians will vote, Justin Trudeau will save his political career with a minority win today, but he will be forced to contend with an unprecedentedly-powerful NDP.

"It just said they're urging me to vote with my conscience and that this is a very important election, and it wasn't really pushing any political agenda," said McKnight. "But it caught me off guard at the end because they said, I'm trying to remember the exact wording, but essentially, 'We urge you to vote tomorrow.'"

On election day in 2015 I played a little experiment with Google Trends, the search engine giants tool for tracking what Internet users are hunting for online. Id earlier written on the question of whether Google could more effectively predict the outcome of the election than pollsters:

Tommy Desfossés, who works on Fergus's campaign, said that the woman was "unequivocal" that the call said voting would take place on Oct. 22 and that she'd received the call Sunday afternoon. He also said Elections Canada told him the agency had gotten a report of another, similar robocall in the riding.

Tales from the polls: Voting across the country

The question of whether Internet searches can predict election outcomes is one of great debate, for obvious reasons. Big Data, the term given to the vast quantity of information now available, thanks to our hyper-connected lives, has shown to be highly useful in discerning consumer habits and trends. The possibility exists that data generated through the social web could be far more indicative of our voting inclination than what we tell pollsters we intend to do. Given the many high-profile failures by pollsters in recent elections, this would be an important tool for election forecasting.

From the search interest in the leaders that year I extrapolated seat counts on election day. As it would turn out, search interest closely mirrored the final results, at least for the main parties.

We remain blissfully unaware of how much our cognitive biases and primitive brains dictate our decisions. But political pros and data manipulators know. They know that when emotion and reason collide, emotion almost always wins. They know we respond more to stories than to stacks of data. They know well come to believe just about anything if its repeated often enough.

ID, ballot selfies, location: A few things to know about voting on Election Day

Since then researches and journalists have continued to dig into the question of whether our Internet searches say more about how we will vote than what we tell pollsters.

Reporter Mitch Potter recently disabused readers Star readers of the delusion that all votes are created equal. He demonstrated that, depending on population of the riding in which voters live, some votes — say, in the densely peopled seats of the GTA — have just a fraction of the electoral power of those in more sparsely inhabited constituencies.

So in the spirit of curiosity the 2019 federal election offers another opportunity to put Googles Trends tool to the test.

(Since this is election day and Elections Canada can be finicky about such things, lets get one thing out of the way first: this should not in any way be considered a scientific poll or opinion survey, which Elections Canada restricts on polling day.)

Unofficial numbers provided by Elections Canada Tuesday morning show 77.4 per cent of eligible voters in Carleton cast a ballot, 1.3 per cent higher than the turnout in Ottawa Centre and a full 11.4 per cent higher than the national average of 66 percent.

Based on search interest in the federal leaders as of Oct. 18, here is what the seat count would look like. (Google search interest is displayed on a rolling three-day delay. Data captured at 11:30 a.m. on Oct. 21.)

While the Liberal seat count of 143 fits generally with what polls are saying, the idea that the NDP could tie the Conservatives seems outlandish. By comparison, here are seat projections from both 338Canada and CBC’s Poll Tracker :

In fact, voter turnout in nine of the 10 ridings in Eastern Ontario was above the national average, with the lone exception being Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry, where turnout reached just 62.9 per cent.

With millennials now accounting for the largest demographic voting block in Canada, could Jagmeet Singh have harnessed the same enthusiasm among young voters that catapulted Justin Trudeau to a significant majority in 2015? Or do these results simply reflect the fact that Internet users skew younger, and for all Singh’s success on social media, that may not necessarily translate into turnout at the polls?

Whatever the case, the surge in Singh’s popularity detected by polls over the past two weeks is also visible in Google search interest.

There is one big difference between this Google Trends extrapolation and the one in 2015. Back then the period I looked at was 90 days. But Trudeau’s blackface blew up on search. (On the Google Trends index, 100 represents the peak of search activity for all the topics being tracked.) I set the start date for this analysis at Sept. 27, by which point searches for the leaders had more or less returned to where they were pre-blackface scandal.

Vancouver, BC: OCTOBER 12, 2019 — Voters at the advanced polling station at Vancouver Technical Secondary School in Vancouver, BC Saturday, October 12, 2019. Jason Payne / PNG

You’ll notice Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet is not among the leaders. That’s because Google Trends restricts users to five topics. Even when Blanchet is substituted in for People’s Party leader Maxime Bernier, however, his party’s climb in the polls doesn’t show up in higher search interest.

After weeks and weeks of door-knocking, campaigning and live-TV debating, Canadas 43rd federal election night is finally here, and the countrys broadcasters are going above and beyond to make the evenings coverage as interesting and engaging as possible. In particular, CBCs election rap has caught the attention of viewers, with many people taking to social media to share their opinions on the unique clip.

Election Day In Canada

We can also learn a lot about what caught Canadians attention over the past month by looking at what people searched for in relation to each leader. What we see is that Singh stands apart from Trudeau and Scheer in setting his own agenda. While the so-called “breakout” related searches for Trudeau and Scheer reflect controversies or fake news that hit both leaders during the campaign, that’s not the case for Singh.

The related searches for Trudeau are particularly disturbing and speak to the impact a manufactured sex scandal in the middle of the campaign may have had on the prime minister’s re-election bid, not to mention the obvious influence of the Buffalo Chronicle on this election—the dubious New York-based website has repeatedly published unsourced and uncorroborated stories about Trudeau that have nevertheless been shared by many on the right.

The short video showed various clips and images of Canadians across the country, interjected with short snippets and pictures of the major party leaders. In the background, there was a rap song audio, that touched on various issues that have arisen during the 43rd Canadian federal election.

Video: Mega-polling station created for Manitoba storm evacuees

Was Google’s accurate prediction of the 2015 election just a fluke? Or are we in for a big surprise in this election? We’ll know soon.

Video: Mega-polling station created for Manitoba storm evacuees